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Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 20
2018-09-30 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 591 WTPZ35 KNHC 300238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 118.9W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 118.9 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm late Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California during this weekend and early next week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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