je.st
news
Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-10-26 10:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260849 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 Seymour remains an impressive hurricane in geostationary satellite pictures, with a very distinct eye surrounded by a symmetric CDO. Subjective and objective Dvorak current intensity numbers are unchanged from before and the initial intensity remains 130 kt for this advisory. Some slight strengthening is still possible this morning while Seymour remains over warm water and in a low shear environment, however, by this afternoon the hurricane will begin moving over slightly lower SSTs, which should start the weakening process. Seymour is forecast to cross the 26 degree Celsius isotherm tonight and move over colder waters and into an area of strong southwesterly wind shear thereafter. These conditions are expected to cause a very rapid decrease in intensity on Thursday, and Seymour is forecast to become a tropical storm within 48 hours and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Friday or early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. A deepening mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery near 140W is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge that has been steering Seymour westward during the past few days. As the ridge weakens, Seymour is forecast to turn northwestward, then northward ahead of the trough. After 48 hours, Seymour's forward motion should decrease as it becomes vertically shallow and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The latest guidance envelope has shifted northward and eastward at 36 h and beyond, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.4N 119.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 120.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.1N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics