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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-10-27 04:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 Seymour is weakening rapidly. Although a small eye was still apparent in microwave data a few hours ago, this feature is no longer evident in the latest geostationary satellite images. In addition, the convective pattern has become asymmetric due to increasing southwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to 95 kt based on Dvorak final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The hurricane is moving across the 26 deg C isotherm and it is expected to move over even colder waters during the next couple of days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with drier air and a significant increase in wind shear should cause Seymour to continue to rapidly weaken. The NHC intensity forecast shows a very fast weakening trend, predicting Seymour to fall below hurricane strength on Thursday and degenerate to a remnant low on Friday. This forecast lies near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. The hurricane has made the expected turn to the northwest, and is now moving 320 degrees at 12 kt. A large deep-layer trough located several hundred miles offshore of the U.S. west coast is expected to move eastward, causing Seymour to slow down and turn northward and then northeastward during the next couple of days. The track models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.7N 121.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.1N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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