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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-10-02 10:52:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 255 WTPZ41 KNHC 020852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Sergio continues to strengthen. The center is located within a fairly symmetric CDO with cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C. Earlier microwave data showed a well-defined eye and inner core, but a more recent AMSU overpass suggests that there has been some slight erosion of the eastern portion of the eye, possibly due to some intrusion of dry mid-level air. Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 75 to 90 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to a possibility conservative 75 kt for this advisory. The intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Although Sergio has developed an inner core and strengthened during the past 12 hour or so, the dynamical models suggest northeasterly shear will increase over the hurricane today. This is expected to temper the intensification somewhat over the next 12-24 hours, however, most of the guidance shows at least gradual strengthening during the next day or so. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a gradual increase in wind speed over the next 36-48 hours, and is close to the IVCN model consensus. After 72 h, cooler waters and the entrainment of drier air is expected to cause gradual weakening. Sergio is moving slightly south of due west or 265/12 kt. The hurricane is currently located to the south of a mid-level ridge, and Sergio should continue westward today. The global models show the western portion of the ridge weakening over the next several days, which should cause Sergio to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward on Wednesday. By late in the week, another ridge is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio and the hurricane is forecast to turn back toward the west. The overall guidance envelope has changed little this cycle, and the new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 10.7N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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