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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-10-03 04:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 761 WTPZ41 KNHC 030238 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 The eye of Sergio has become obscured over the past several hours, indicating that the intensifying trend has levelled off. It appears that northeasterly shear is affecting the inner core as the latest microwave data indicate an open eyewall on the northern side of the hurricane. The intensity is held at 100 kt for this advisory since the overall wind speed estimates haven't changed much, although there is a fair spread in those values. The shear is forecast to decrease over the next day or two, which should allow further strengthening of Sergio, pending any eyewall cycles. Weakening is expected in the longer range while the hurricane moves over more shallow marginally warm waters. Only a small change has been made to the short term intensity forecast, and the rest of the forecast is essentially the same. Sergio has turned toward the west-northwest and slowed down, as forecast, now 300/9. A west-northwest or northwest track is expected as a ridge weakens to the north of Sergio for the next day or two. Thereafter, a strong ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Sergio, which should force a westward motion. As has been the case for many cyclones this season, the GFS-based guidance is on the right side of track guidance envelope, while the ECMWF/UKMET are on the left side. The consensus has remained quite steady near the previous interpolated official forecast, thus the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.8N 115.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 16.5N 126.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.8N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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