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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-10-04 22:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 Sergio remains an impressive hurricane. Although the cloud pattern is still symmetric and well organized, the eye has become ragged and cloud filled at times. The current satellite intensity estimates range from 102 to 127 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 115 kt based on a blend of these data. The environmental conditions along Sergio's future path are expected to gradually become less favorable during the next several days, with decreasing mid-level humidities, cooler SSTs, and a slight increase in wind shear. In response, all of the models show a gradual weakening trend through the period, and the NHC forecast does as well. This forecast lies near the intensity consensus aids and is largely an update of the previous one. The hurricane is still moving to the northwest at 8 kt. A gradual turn to the left, or west, is expected during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge builds to the north-northwest of Sergio. Late this weekend, a decrease in forward speed is expected as the ridge retreats in response to a large trough over the southwestern United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The only notable change in the track forecast is a sharper northward and northeastward turn at days 4 and 5, to come in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 119.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 16.8N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 18.3N 126.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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