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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-10-05 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 Sergio's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat since the previous advisory, with cloud tops warming and the eye becoming more ragged and less distinct. The initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt based on a blend of the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates. Sergio is expected to steadily weaken for the next 48 hours while moving into a drier and more stable environment. By then, most of the guidance suggests little change from 48-72 hours before the shear increases by the end of the period and SSTs cool to between 26C and 27C, which should again result in weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the observed weakening and the trend in the guidance, but is similar after that time. This prediction is close to or a bit above the latest HCCA intensity consensus aid. Sergio has turned toward the left during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate now 305/07. A mid-level ridge building to the northwest of Sergio will steer the hurricane toward the west and even toward the west-southwest during the next 36 to 48 hours. After that time, an amplifying longwave trough over western North America will erode the ridge and cause Sergio to recurve, with a faster northeastward motion shown by day 5. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one from 24 to 48 hours, following the trend of the latest consensus aids, which are showing a more equatorward motion during this time. At days 3 through 5, the NHC track is largely an update of the previous one, and lies between the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.9N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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