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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-10-05 10:54:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050854 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 Sergio's eye has cooled somewhat during the past few hours, but there have been no significant changes to the surrounding deep convection. Despite that observation, all available intensity estimates have fallen to between 100-105 kt, and the advisory intensity is therefore set at 105 kt. The gradual weakening trend Sergio has been on is expected to continue for the duration of the forecast period as the hurricane moves toward slightly cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. An increase in shear by days 4 and 5 should also help the weakening process along. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble. Sergio has continued to turn to the left and is now moving west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. Northerly flow behind a mid-level trough that will swing across the Baja California peninsula will likely push Sergio west-southwestward by 24 hours, and the NHC forecast continues to reflect that scenario. After 48 hours, a break in the ridge left behind by the trough should allow Sergio to turn toward the north by days 3-4. Another shortwave trough is then expected to cause a northeastward acceleration by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF, along with the other major track models, have come into better agreement on this acceleration by day 5, and the new official forecast is therefore a little faster than the previous one at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 16.0N 121.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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