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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 36
2018-10-08 10:50:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080850 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Sergio continues to have a large 60 nmi diameter eye with several mesovorticies within it. Although the cloud pattern is quite symmetric around the eye, the cloud tops are not very cold, likely due to some ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane. The Dvorak estimates are largely unchanged from earlier and still support an initial intensity of 80 kt. Sergio is now drifting northwestward in weak steering currents. A shortwave trough is expected to approach Sergio from the north, and that feature, and a large trough over the southwestern United States should cause Sergio to turn northeastward tonight. This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the remainder of the week. The models are in good agreement overall, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, Sergio is expected to be very near the Baja California peninsula in about 4 days. Sergio is expected to hold its strength or weaken only slightly during the next day or so while it remains in a favorable atmospheric environment. However, steady weakening is expected after that time due to increasing shear, drier air, and progressively cooler waters along the forecast track. Based on the intensity guidance and environmental conditions, Sergio is expected to be a tropical storm by the time it nears the Baja California peninsula. The cyclone should weaken quickly once it moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Recent ASCAT data was very helpful in analyzing the 34- and 50-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 128.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA 120H 13/0600Z 33.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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