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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 40
2018-10-09 10:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090838 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little in the past 6 hours and is comprised of a fragmented, large outer ring, about 100 n mi in diameter. The coldest cloud tops are now confined to just the southeast portion of cyclone's circulation. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial intensity at 75 kt. Some slow weakening, or possibly very little change in strength, is expected during the next 36 hours as Sergio traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear surrounding environment. Afterward, the cyclone should enter a region of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should influence significant weakening and reducing Sergio to a tropical storm prior to landfall. Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday. At the end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States. The intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the NOAA-HCCA and the GFS and ECMWF global models which show Sergio making landfall as a tropical storm. Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/5 kt. Sergio should begin accelerating in the aforementioned direction this morning, and approach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. There is high confidence in the forecast track as the available global and regional models are clustered tightly together through day 5. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 30.0N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/0600Z 36.3N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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