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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 41
2018-10-09 16:48:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Sergio appears to have resumed its slow weakening. Cloud tops on the western half of the hurricane have warmed, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased. However, recent AMSR-2 and SSMIS images indicate that the hurricane still has a large but well-defined inner-core in the low and mid-levels. The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. There has been almost no change to the intensity forecast and only very gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 h. Beyond that time, Sergio will pass over colder SSTs, including the still-present cold wake of former Hurricane Rosa, and continued weakening is expected as the cyclone approaches the Baja California peninsula. Sergio is therefore still forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in a few days. Rapid weakening is likely after Sergio makes its final landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico late this week, and the cyclone will likely dissipate or become a remnant low shortly after moving inland. Virtually no change has been made to the track forecast, which remains near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. All of the global and regional models show that Sergio will accelerate generally northeastward for the next 3 days, approaching the Baja California peninsula on Friday. There is still some disagreement among the models regarding the exact speed of Sergio through that time, but there is very little cross-track spread. Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to affect portions of northwestern Mexico, the southwestern United States, and the U.S. southern plains over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.6N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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