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Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-10-23 17:03:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231503 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Willa's overall satellite presentation has not changed much during the past few hours, with some evidence of a small inner core and and an outer eyewall. Recent microwave data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft also indicate that concentric eyewalls are present. The reconnaissance aircraft just completed its first pass into the center and found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt, and SFMR winds of 99 kt. The plane reported a minimum pressure of 966 mb, which was higher than previously estimated. Based on the preliminary aircraft data and a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from the various agencies, the initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The plane should provide a more accurate assessment of Willa's intensity as it continues its mission during the new few hours. Willa is moving a little east of due north or 010/5 kt. A shortwave trough approaching the west coast of the Baja California peninsula is expected to cause Willa to turn north-northeastward this morning, and the hurricane should accelerate northeastward by tonight. The core of Willa will move over the Isla Marias within the next few hours, and make landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico this evening. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. Although Willa is moving over an area of deep warm water, increasing southwesterly shear is likely to cause gradual weakening as the hurricane approaches the coast. Despite the forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico. After landfall, Willa will rapidly weaken over the mountains of mainland Mexico, and dissipation is expected on Wednesday. Moisture from the remnants of this system is forecast to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas and the northern Gulf Coast where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected over the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area along the coast of west- central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds will also extend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 21.4N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0000Z 26.7N 99.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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