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Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-10-22 04:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220232 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Willa has continued to rapidly intensify this evening. Satellite images show a well-defined circular eye with a surrounding ring of cold cloud tops that are near -80 deg C over the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, which is near the latest Dvorak ADT estimates from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Willa has strengthened at an incredible rate since genesis, intensifying from a tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane in less than 48 hours. Willa is gradually turning toward the right, with the initial motion estimated to be 340/6 kt. The hurricane is expected to turn northward on Monday as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the east, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday when a shortwave trough approaches the system. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. On the forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las Islas Marias on Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and west-central Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The hurricane has certainty taken advantage of the near ideal environmental conditions and since these conditions will persist a little longer, some additional strengthening is shown in the short term. However, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall replacement cycles. The models then show a gradual increase in shear and a decrease in available moisture around 24 hours, and these factors should cause a slow weakening trend. Regardless, Willa is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane, bringing multiple life-threatening hazards to the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast after the system moves inland and interacts with the mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance through dissipation. Key Messages: 1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the Islas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash flooding along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for these areas, and residents should rush preparations to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.7N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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