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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-29 03:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290258 TCDAT3 Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The center of Zeta made landfall on the Louisiana coast south of Cocodrie at about 4 pm CDT with maximum sustained winds of about 95 kt. Since then, the hurricane has raced across southeastern Louisiana and is now over southeastern Mississippi. While the sustained winds have been coming down, the satellite presentation is actually not very degraded for a system that has been over land for this long, and there have been reports of 100-mph wind gusts during the past couple of hours. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt on the basis of radar velocities and the decay-SHIPS model. The hurricane is accelerating tonight toward the northeast or 040/27 kt. While Zeta should continue to weaken due to land effects, strong gusty winds are likely to occur near and east of the center due to the cyclone moving rapidly northeastward, allowing these strong winds to spread well inland. Little change was made to the intensity forecast. Zeta should become extratropical and merge with a front before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast, eventually merging with a frontal boundary in a couple of days. The official track forecast most closely follows a blend of the model consensus and the GFS, and is faster than the last NHC track. Note that the wind gust factor for this hurricane is higher than typical for a tropical cyclone, and that is reflected in the Forecast/Advisory product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A dangerous storm surge is continuing along portions of the Mississippi and Alabama coastline and will gradually subside in the early morning hours on Thursday. 2. Dangerous hurricane conditions expected to continue for the next few hours near and along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. Tropical storm conditions will also continue for portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts. 3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia overnight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. 4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 31.5N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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