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Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-07-16 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 295 WTNT42 KNHC 160234 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 Dry air and shear has prevented the redevelopment of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and what little convection Beryl had early this morning was not very organized. As a result, the system has become post-tropical and this will be the final NHC advisory. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite intensity estimate of 25-30 kt from TAFB. Beryl is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs in the Gulf Stream overnight, but shear and dry air are expected to prevent organized deep convection from returning. After that time, the remnant low will be moving over much colder waters and a gradual spin down is predicted. The global models indicate that the remnant low will dissipate near southeastern Newfoundland on Tuesday. Beryl is moving east-northeastward at a faster pace than before or 065/11. The cyclone should turn northeastward and accelerate over the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded within low- to mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The track models are in good agreement and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 38.6N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/1200Z 39.9N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z 42.6N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 45.5N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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