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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 59
2019-09-07 22:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 072045 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Dorian has lost tropical cyclone characteristics and is now a hurricane-force extratropical low. The initial intensity is held at 85 kt based mainly on the earlier scatterometer data. The initial motion is 040/26. Strong mid-latitude southwesterly flow should steer Dorian across Nova Scotia and other portions of eastern Canada during the next 24-30 h. After that, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic, with this motion continuing for the rest of the system's life. Global model guidance indicates that the post-tropical cyclone should gradually weaken as it moves across eastern Canada, and the new intensity forecast brings the winds below hurricane force by 24 h. Additional weakening should then occur until the storm is absorbed by a large extratropical low to its north. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Although Dorian has lost tropical cyclone characteristics, it will have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada tonight and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 43.9N 63.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0600Z 47.0N 61.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1800Z 50.2N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0600Z 53.0N 50.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 55.4N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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