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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 63
2019-09-08 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 082040 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence. An ASCAT-B overpass several hours ago showed winds of 55-60 kt to the southeast of the center, and much of this area of wind has moved onshore in western Newfoundland. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt. The global models continue to forecast Dorian to steadily weaken until the cyclone is absorbed by another large extratropical low to its north between 36-48 h. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii. The cyclone continues moving northeastward or 050/20 kt. This general motion should continue through tonight, with the center of Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic. This should be followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the previous advisory. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada tonight. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and western Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force should continue over portions of Newfoundland. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 51.0N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 09/0600Z 53.2N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/1800Z 55.2N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z 56.8N 37.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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