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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-13 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130235 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Elida has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and since it is over SSTs of 22-23 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely that organized deep convection will return. As a result, the system has become a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC advisory on Elida. The initial intensity has been set at 35 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is heading toward even cooler waters and a more stable environment. Continued weakening is therefore expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Friday morning. The initial motion estimate is 315/8 kt. A low- to mid-level trough located to the northwest of the cyclone has caused a break in the subtropical ridge. This has allowed the system to turn northwestward, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Friday. The global model guidance continues to suggest that the low-level center will decelerate as the mid-level circulation is pulled northward ahead of the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track foreast is similar to the previous advisory and again shows a slower forward motion than the global model trackers. This is the last NHC advisory on Elida. For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 24.4N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 13/1200Z 25.3N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0000Z 26.6N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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