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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-17 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171451 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Fausto has been absent of deep convection for about 12 hours, and with the system over SSTs below 23 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely organized deep convection will return. Therefore, Fausto has become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial wind speed has been set at 25 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB Dvorak T- and CI-numbers. The low should continue to spin down over cooler waters over the next day or so, and the global models indicate it will dissipate by Wednesday morning. The initial motion estimate is now westward or 280/11 kt. The remnant low should turn west-southwestward on Tuesday while it continues to weaken and comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. This is the last NHC advisory on Fausto. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 23.4N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0000Z 23.8N 127.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 23.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 23.4N 132.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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