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Post-Tropical Cyclone IVO Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-08-25 22:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252034 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 IVO HAS BECOME A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND IS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN...AND IVO IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT-B OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 KT. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 25.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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