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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-09-30 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 301453 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 4
2024-09-30 16:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 301453 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 34.8W ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 34.8 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is likely to become a hurricane by tomorrow and could become a major hurricane by midweek. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-09-30 16:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 301453 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.6N 36.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.7N 40.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 41.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N 43.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 44.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 46.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 120SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 48.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 34.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics