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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-08-25 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 563 WTPZ45 KNHC 252031 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 The initial motion is 340/07 kt. Ivo has slowed down due to the system weakening and becoming vertically shallow. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected today and this evening, followed by a turn toward the north late tonight or early Monday morning. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly clustered consensus models. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based mainly on continuity with the previous forecast. The inner-core region of Ivo's circulation has been devoid of any convection for more than 12 hours. What little bit of thunderstorm activity that does exist well to the north-northwest and west of the center is not showing any signs of feeding back onto the cyclone and, therefore, Ivo has degenerated into a remnant low pressure system. Additional spin down of the shallow vortex is forecast due to the cyclone moving over sub-22 deg C sea-surface temperatures and continuing to ingest more cool and stable air, with dissipation likely by Tuesday. Although Ivo is no longer a tropical cyclone, significant swells generated by the low are still affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells will continue into tonight and could cause dangerous rip currents before subsiding on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information. This is the last NHC advisory on Ivo. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 26.0N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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