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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 33
2019-09-25 16:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251459 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Jerry remains devoid of deep convection in an environment of dry mid-level air and strong westerly shear. Data from a new scatterometer pass indicate that the maximum winds are no more than 35 kt, and even that value could be generous. The system should remain in a hostile environment for the next few days, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that no significant deep convection will redevelop within it. Therefore the official intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is just slightly below the model consensus. The cyclone has turned toward the east-northeast with some increase in forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 060/8 kt. Jerry should continue to move east-northeastward, to the south of the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies, for the next day or two. Later in the forecast period, the weak cyclone is expected to turn east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical high pressure area, and dissipate. The official track forecast continues to follow the NOAA corrected consensus guidance rather closely. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 32.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/0000Z 32.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/1200Z 33.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 34.3N 60.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 34.9N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 33.8N 54.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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