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Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-08-29 10:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290834 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014 There has been no organized deep convection within the circulation of the system for many hours now, so Marie has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in agreement with 30-35 kt winds noted in a 0530 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The large circulation will gradually spin down over cold waters of the eastern North Pacific, and the NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the global model guidance and the previous NHC prediction. Marie is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone should slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from a mid-level ridge near California into an area of lighter steering currents. The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model consensus. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Marie. For future information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 27.6N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 29/1800Z 28.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0600Z 29.7N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 30.4N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 30.7N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 30.3N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z 29.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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