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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 46
2016-10-09 16:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 091456 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a cold front has wrapped around the southwestern portion of Matthew's circulation and the post-tropical cyclone is now analyzed as an extratropical low. Despite the change in the cyclone's structure over the past 24 hours, Matthew continues to produce an area of very strong winds to the southwest and west of the center. Sustained winds of 55 to 60 kt with gusts above hurricane force were reported at several coastal marine observing stations near the Outer Banks of North Carolina this morning, and a recent dropsonde from the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft reported surface winds of 58 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 65 kt. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours, and be absorbed by a frontal boundary in about 48 hours. Matthew is moving eastward at about 13 kt. The low should continue moving eastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow during the next day or so. The NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models, and is similar to the previous advisory. Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue over the North Carolina Outer Banks this afternoon, with gusts to near hurricane force possible during the next hour or two. Storm surge flooding continues over portions of the Outer Banks. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk. 2. Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 35.2N 73.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 10/0000Z 35.3N 71.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1200Z 35.7N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0000Z 37.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown
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