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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Forecast Discussion Number 32
2020-10-07 04:46:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070245 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 Patchy shower activity continues nearly 250 n mi to the northeast of Marie's center--way too far away and way too weak for the system to still be classified as a tropical cyclone. Marie has therefore become a remnant low, with maximum winds set at 30 kt since an ASCAT-C pass around 1800 UTC did not register any winds of tropical storm force. The remnant circulation is expected to gradually spin down during the next few days due to cold waters, dry air, and southwesterly shear of about 40 kt. The global models generally show the remnant low hanging around for the next 3 days and then opening up into a trough by day 4, and that is reflected in this last NHC advisory. Marie continues moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/7 kt. A fairly weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north should keep Marie on a west-northwestward heading for the next 24 hours, followed by a westward motion with a gradual decrease in speed from 36 to 72 hours. Most of the track models seem to pull the remnant low too far to the north during the next day or so, and the NHC track forecast is therefore near the southern side of the guidance envelope, between HCCA and the previous interpolated official forecast. This is the last advisory on Marie. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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