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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-24 22:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 738 WTPZ43 KNHC 242041 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 There has been no significant deep convection within 100 nmi of Marty's center for more than 12 hours. As a result, Marty has degenerated into a remnant low. The initial intensity has been maintained at 30 kt based on ASCAT-B/-A passes between 1700-1800 UTC that still showed a significant fetch of 25-kt winds over much of the northern quadrant, including a few embedded 28-kt vectors. Since Marty is forecast to remain over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and within a large field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds, gradual spin down of the vortex and weakening of the cyclone's peak winds are expected until dissipation occurs in about 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate remains westward, or 270/10 kt. For the next 36 hours or so, the remnant low is forecast to move westward along the southern periphery of a sprawling deep-layer ridge located northwest through northeast of Marty. Thereafter, a motion toward the west-southwest is expected until the cyclone dissipates. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models, which have shifted a little to the south on this forecast cycle. This is the last advisory being issued on Marty. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 20.5N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/0600Z 20.5N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 20.5N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 20.2N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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