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Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Forecast Discussion Number 23
2024-10-10 22:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 102035 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Milton's satellite appearance has continued to take on an extratropical appearance, and ASCAT data from a few hours ago confirmed that the cyclone has become frontal. Based on that information, Milton was declared post tropical in the 2 pm intermediate advisory. The ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt to the northwest of the center, so the initial intensity is set to 60 kt. Milton has turned eastward and sped up a bit (080/18 kt). A general eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next several days, with the extratropical low forecast to pass south of Bermuda in 24-36 hours. Global model fields and intensity models indicate that the intensity should gradually decrease during the next several days, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Dissipation is shown by day 4, although there is still some uncertainty if Milton will become absorbed by the frontal zone before that time, or retain its identity beyond 4 days. Since all storm surge and tropical storm warnings have been discontinued, this will be the last advisory on Milton. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds and coastal flooding will gradually diminish along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through tonight. 2. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban flooding will linger through this evening across east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast throughout central Florida. 3. In Florida, continue to use caution since deadly hazards remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. If you are cleaning up storm damage, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 29.5N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 11/0600Z 29.6N 72.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1800Z 29.8N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0600Z 30.4N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1800Z 31.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0600Z 32.1N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2024-10-10 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 102034 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-10 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MILTON HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 the center of Milton was located near 29.5, -76.3 with movement E at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics