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Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-10-15 10:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150831 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Vertical wind shear, cool waters, and a dry and stable atmosphere have taken a toll on Norbert. The system has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and therefore it has become a post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is set at 25 kt, which is based on a TAFB Dvorak CI number of T1.5. This could be a little generous as the system has likely continued to spin down since the previous advisory. The remnant low should continue to weaken today, and the global models indicate that the low will open up into a trough of low pressure off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight. The post-tropical cyclone has slowed down and is now moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. A slow north-northwestward motion within the weak low-level steering flow is expected until dissipation occurs. This is the last NHC advisory on Norbert. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 26.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 15/1800Z 27.1N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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