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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-11-06 03:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060232 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of the cyclone. Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal 26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track model TVCE. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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