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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-09-11 10:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110834 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Olaf has been without deep convection for about the last 18 hours, and it is therefore being designated as a remnant low. A scatterometer pass from several hours ago still showed winds of 25-30 kt occurring to the north of the center, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Weakening is expected during the next few days while the remnant low traverses waters of about 25 degrees Celsius and through a very dry air mass. Global model fields show the circulation opening up into a trough anywhere between 2 and 6 days from now, so as a compromise the official forecast indicates this happening by day 4, but it's likely to be sooner than that. Olaf is now losing latitude and moving south of due west, or 260/5 kt. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge to the north is expected to force the remnant low to the west-southwest and southwest during the next several days. In fact, the models have been trending toward a more pronounced loss of latitude, and this final NHC track forecast has been shifted southward from the previous advisory--close to the TVCE model consensus but not nearly as far south as the HCCA aid. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 24.4N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg [ more ]
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