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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-10-31 21:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 312034 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Oscar has become a hurricane-force extratropical low, as the central convection has all but dissipated and frontal-band-type cloud features have become better defined. The scatterometer data show hurricane-force winds about 70 n mi south of the center, and that the overall wind field has expanded considerably since the previous overpass. The cyclone is expected to maintain an intensity of 60-65 kt for the next 48 h, then gradually weaken as the baroclinic energy wanes, with dissipation occurring between 96-120 h over the far northeastern Atlantic. The initial motion is now 030/30 kt. Oscar is now well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and for the next 3-4 days it should move generally northeastward with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Much of the current forecast, especially the intensity and the size, is based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last advisory on Oscar from the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 39.3N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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