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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-19 21:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192032 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 A few convective cells continue to pulse over 100 n mi northeast of Polo's center, but overall the cyclone has not produced persistent, organized deep convection since yesterday evening. Therefore, Polo is being designated as a remnant low. A recent ASCAT pass sampled the eastern part of Polo's circulation and showed winds around 25 kt, so it is assumed that 30-kt winds are still occurring closer to the center. Moderate westerly shear, marginally warm waters, and a dry environment should cause Polo's winds to gradually decrease, and the circulation is expected to open up into a trough by 36 hours, per the latest global model guidance. Polo is moving just south of due west (265/10 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to continue until the low dissipates, and the NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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