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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 30
2024-11-10 21:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102032 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 The limited convection that Rafael was producing in its eastern semicircle has collapsed. Surface observations, visible satellite images, and a 1530z ASCAT-C pass show the surface circulation has become poorly defined and very elongated in the north-south direction. Since Rafael does not possess a well-defined center or organized convection, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. This will be the final NHC advisory on Rafael. The remnant low is expected to drift eastward over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight, then turn toward the south and southwest on Monday and Tuesday. The forecast calls for dissipation by Tuesday night, but this could occur even sooner if current trends continue. The elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast will likely continue into Monday. For more information, see products from your local NWS forecast office. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Key Messages: 1. Swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 26.1N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-10 21:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.1, -91.3 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 30
2024-11-10 21:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 102031 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 91.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON RAFAEL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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