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Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-11-06 03:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060239 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 Deep convection has now remained absent in Xavier for about twelve hours. Given the hostile southwesterly vertical shear, dry mid-levels, and only lukewarm waters to be encountered by the system during the next couple of days, it is unlikely that persistent deep convection will make a comeback. Therefore, Xavier is now considered to be a post-tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory to be issued by the National Hurricane Center. Despite the lack of thunderstorms, Xavier is showing a well- pronounced, though small, low-level circulation in the last few visible images. Peak winds in the system are around 40 kt, assuming that some spindown has occurred since the 45 kt observed from the ASCAT scatterometer several hours ago. Continued gradual weakening is very likely and Xavier is anticipated to become a remnant low by Tuesday night and dissipate in about three days. The post-tropical cyclone is moving west-northwestward at around 5 kt. The system should turn toward the west or west-southwest during the next couple of days until dissipation, under the influence of a lower tropospheric ridge north of Xavier. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 19.1N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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