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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2
2024-09-16 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 875 WTNT23 KNHC 160239 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 90SE 120SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-09-16 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160235 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Gordon is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone tonight. While the low-level circulation continues to be well-defined, the convection associated with this circulation is meager, and barely meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Subjective and objective estimates continue to decrease this evening, and the initial intensity is set to 25 kt this advisory. The tropical depression continues to move south of due west, estimated at 260/6 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so as the shallow cyclone is primarily steered by a low to mid-level ridge positioned to its west-northwest. Thereafter, a significant weakness in this steering flow is forecast to develop, related to a non-tropical low expected to drop equatorward towards Gordon. This steering change is expected to cause the tropical cyclone to first slow its forward motion, and then gradually turn poleward, moving north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle is a bit more poleward and faster compared to the previous one, and the NHC track is once again nudged a bit more right and faster compared to the prior advisory. Gordon is struggling mightily against very dry mid-level air, and this environment is unlikely to change much over the next few days. In fact, it would not be surprising to see Gordon become a remnant low at any time if convection does not soon return in a more prominent way near the center. After 48 h, the environment is forecast to begin moistening some while vertical wind shear is expected to be fairly low, providing an opportunity for Gordon to re-intensify, presuming there is enough of a system left to take advantage of the improving environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is not much different from the prior one aside from the weaker initial intensity, and assumes Gordon will survive in the short-term, which is not a forgone conclusion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics
2024-09-16 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 02:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 02:34:39 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics