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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-09-16 10:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 160844 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 20
2024-09-16 10:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160844 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 The convection that developed during the evening hours on the east side of Gordon has persisted through the night. Nighttime CIRA proxy vis imagery suggests that the low-level center of Gordon is near the western edge of this convection. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 25 to 33 kt. In the absence of ASCAT data, no change is made to the 25-kt intensity carried in the previous NHC advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/7 kt. Gordon is being steered westward by the subtropical ridge, situated to the north of the tropical depression. This setup should continue to steer Gordon slowly westward through today. Thereafter, a frontal low located to the north of the ridge is forecast to drop equatorward towards Gordon, creating a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As a result of this steering change, Gordon should initially slow its forward motion, and then turn toward the north-northeast while gradually accelerating. The consensus track models have continued to shift a bit to the right and faster, and the latest NHC forecast is again nudged in that direction. Gordon has been doing a remarkable job fighting off environmental dry air given how the area of convection has maintained itself overnight relatively close to the low-level center. Gordon is forecast to remain in a dry mid-level environment for the next few days, although some slight moistening of the environment is possible beyond 24 h while the vertical shear is forecast to remain relatively low. Although it is still possible that Gordon could degenerate to a remnant low, if the cyclone is able to survive the next 24 h, then its chances of surviving the next 5 days would seem to increase. There is also some uncertainty as to how Gordon's circulation could potentially interact with a non-tropical low in 3 to 4 days. If Gordon then survives its interaction with the non-tropical low, some strengthening would be possible in 4 to 5 days as shown by some of the global models. No changes were made to the previous NHC intensity prediction, which still assumes Gordon will survive in the short term. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.2N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Gordon (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-16 10:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GORDON MAINTAINING ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 16 the center of Gordon was located near 19.2, -47.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics