je.st
news
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-16 04:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 160241 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) has become a bit better organized tonight, with deep convection on the northeast side of the circulation. Additionally, the last aircraft pass just north of the estimated center of the system indicated that the temperature gradient from east-to-west had weakened. However, it is still unclear whether a well-defined center exists looking at the latest satellite and radar animations, with the center that the plane found earlier looking somewhat elongated. For now, the system will remain a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and the winds are set to 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the area overnight for a better look at the system's structure. It appears the system has only drifted northwest since this afternoon. The PTC should move a bit faster to the northwest on Monday and Tuesday due to flow from a ridge over the northeastern United States. There is general agreement on this track in the models, though they differ on the speed. The new forecast is trended a bit slower than the last one, but not as slow as the ECMWF model. The system has a high chance of being a tropical cyclone early tomorrow, and some strengthening is possible before landfall as it moves over warm waters with a conducive upper-level trough interaction. The official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance and the prior forecast. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 32.2N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Tropical Depression Gordon (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-16 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 15 the center of Gordon was located near 19.0, -46.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-09-16 04:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 160239 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 13 13(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 22 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOREHEAD CITY 34 26 4(30) X(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) SURF CITY NC 34 50 7(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) WILMINGTON NC 34 60 7(67) X(67) X(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) BALD HEAD ISL 34 85 4(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) BALD HEAD ISL 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 23 23(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 80 8(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) LITTLE RIVER 50 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 82 8(90) X(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) MYRTLE BEACH 50 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 70 11(81) X(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) CHARLESTON SC 34 33 7(40) X(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 9 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics