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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-09-16 16:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 161452 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring off the Carolina coast has not become better organized this morning. The low-level circulation remains elongated and not well defined, based on overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and recent visible satellite images. The flight-level temperature data from the aircraft also suggested a frontal boundary remains in close proximity to the low, which is consistent with the cloud pattern of the system. The strongest winds and heaviest rains lie to the north and northeast of the estimated center and are currently spreading across southeastern North Carolina. Based on surface synoptic observations, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. Aircraft data and satellite images indicate the elongated center lies a bit north of previous estimates, with an uncertain initial motion of north-northwestward at 4 kt. This general motion should continue today, bringing the center toward the coast of South Carolina and inland within the warning area later today. However, it should be noted that much of the hazardous weather conditions extend well to the northeast of the center and are currently moving onshore over the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. A northwestward motion is forecast to continue over land while the weakening low spins down. The updated NHC track forecast lies a bit to the right of the previous prediction based on the latest track consensus aids. With limited time before it moves inland, the chances of this system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone continue to decrease. The intensity guidance shows quick weakening once the low crosses the coastline, and the official NHC intensity forecast brings the system down to 30 kt in 12 h, on the lower end of the guidance envelope but consistent with the global model fields. Weakening should continue through dissipation, which is forecast to occur on Wednesday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area during the next several hours. 2. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding is possible across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. 3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 32.9N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 33.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 34.3N 79.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082024)
2024-09-16 16:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 32.9, -78.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 4
2024-09-16 16:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 161451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 78.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, but steady weakening is anticipated after the system moves inland. The low is forecast to dissipate over the Carolinas by early Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 67 mph (107 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area for the next several hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, is expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, is expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through this evening across eastern North Carolina. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics