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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 1
2024-09-15 22:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 152056 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 78.0W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. The disturbance is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the potential tropical cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Monday across eastern North Carolina and vicinity. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-09-15 22:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 601 WTNT23 KNHC 152055 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.0W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 60SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.0W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 78.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics
2024-09-15 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 20:32:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 21:23:04 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics