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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-10-27 22:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 272044 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 12(12) 27(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 33(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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