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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-13 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 130256 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 4(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 2(17) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 1(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 2(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) 2(23) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 4(32) 1(33) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 5(26) 2(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) 2(27) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 3(29) 2(31) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 4(26) 2(28) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) 3(29) 1(30) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 12(37) 3(40) 1(41) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) 2(29) 1(30) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 8(37) 3(40) X(40) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 14(14) 13(27) 6(33) 2(35) X(35) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 4(26) 2(28) 1(29) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 1(17) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 1(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 7(29) 1(30) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 1(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 10(43) 2(45) 1(46) 1(47) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 9(10) 9(19) 2(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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