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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-06-17 22:48:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2024 054 WTNT21 KNHC 172048 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 93.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 93.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 93.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-06-17 19:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 171742 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche with winds of 35-40 mph occurring in an area well to the northeast of the center over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves slowly west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later this afternoon or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-06-17 19:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 171738 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics