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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-06-18 10:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 800 WTNT41 KNHC 180848 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The system has not become better organized over the past few hours, with limited central deep convection and the strongest thunderstorm activity near the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. The cloud pattern is still not classifiable via the Dvorak technique. ASCAT scatterometer data indicated that the inner circulation was still not well organized, with a broad area of light winds near the estimated center. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center it will continue to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system later this morning to assess whether the circulation is becoming better defined. Although there is significant uncertainty in the center location, my best guess of initial motion is northward near 5 kt. This general motion is likely to continue into tonight, followed by a gradual westward turn due to a mid-level ridge building over the northern Gulf Coast. On this track, the center will be near northeastern Mexico by late Wednesday. The official forecast track is slightly south of, and a bit faster than, the previous one and close to the latest model consensus. Based on NOAA buoy data, the intensity remains near 35 kt. The system has a large upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern associated with it, and is situated over warm waters with light vertical shear. These conditions would favor strengthening but the lack of a well-defined inner core is inhibiting intensification. Assuming that the inner circulation becomes better established during the next day or so, some increase in strength is forecast up to landfall. It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into northeast Mexico. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning this morning and continuing through midweek. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Wednesday over portions of the Texas coast south of Port OConnor, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect, and over portions of northeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.3N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1800Z 22.0N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 19/0600Z 22.7N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 19/1800Z 23.2N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 20/0600Z 23.3N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z 23.5N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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