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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-06-18 16:50:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 612 WTNT41 KNHC 181449 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The disturbance's overall envelope is becoming slightly better defined, although there is still no evidence that a well-defined center of circulation has developed. Deep convection is increasing somewhat near the estimated center, but the most widespread activity is blossoming farther north over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The system is still being designated as a potential tropical cyclone with 35-kt winds, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently surveying the system's wind field to assess its structure. The disturbance is moving generally northward, or 005/6 kt, although the centroid of the cloud pattern suggests it may have jogged east a bit. A continued slow motion is expected through tonight as the system gradually consolidates, but a turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is forecast Wednesday and Wednesday night due to a mid-level ridge building southwestward over the southeastern United States. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one during the first 24 hours, but is then a bit faster after that, trending toward the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. The system's broad nature will continue to inhibit significant strengthening despite otherwise conducive environmental conditions. Global model fields suggest the circulation will tighten up and develop a well-defined center on Wednesday while the system approaches the coast of Mexico. Intensification becomes more of a possibility at that point, and gradual strengthening is forecast on Wednesday while the system approaches the coast. It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning today and continuing through midweek. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight or Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of Port OConnor and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 21.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0000Z 22.5N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 19/1200Z 23.0N 95.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 20/0000Z 23.3N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 20/1200Z 23.3N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone One (AT1/AL012024)
2024-06-18 16:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 the center of One was located near 21.8, -92.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-06-18 16:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024 703 WTNT21 KNHC 181449 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 1500 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 0SE 0SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 92.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 93.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.0N 95.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.3N 97.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...360NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.3N 100.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 92.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics