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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-06-18 10:48:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024 256 FONT11 KNHC 180848 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 0900 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 6(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone One (AT1/AL012024)
2024-06-18 10:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 the center of One was located near 21.3, -93.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory Number 3
2024-06-18 10:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 827 WTNT31 KNHC 180848 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 93.0W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected is expected tonight and Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics