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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-02 22:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 304 WTNT22 KNHC 022042 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 77.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 77.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 76.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N 79.3W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.1N 81.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.6N 84.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.0N 87.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.6N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 34.0N 95.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 77.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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