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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-03 11:09:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030909 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Overnight scatterometer wind data and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the west-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined, but still lacks a well-defined center. However, the scatterometer indicated surface winds of 30-33 kt in the northwestern quadrant and observations from Buoy 42002 north of the center have been indicating wind speeds of 25-27 kt at 4-meter elevation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Potential Cyclone Seven. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 260/06 kt. The general motion of the broad low is expected to be westward, being steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the southern United States. It is possible, however, that an apparent west-northwestward motion could occur if the low-level center redevelops farther north into the deep convection. The NHC forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the consensus model TVCN. Some slight strengthening is forecast during then next 36-48 hours before the low moves inland over northeastern Mexico. However, the broad and large circulation should prevent any rapid intensification from occurring. The official intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN consensus model. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 23.5N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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