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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-09-28 16:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281451 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. This track should bring the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. The disturbance is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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