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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-10-17 16:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 171457 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 8(26) X(26) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) X(33) X(33) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) X(35) X(35) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 24(39) X(39) X(39) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) 8(48) X(48) X(48) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 32(32) 23(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 43(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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